No CD in the country better exemplifies the split in the GOP better than AZ-08. That division looks likely to work in Dems' favor again as the April 17 special primary approaches.
-- At 53% for Bush and 52% for McCain, GOPers have long seen AZ-08 as a seat that's rightly theirs. Gabrielle Giffords's star power was key for Dems, but she was aided when local GOPers nominated far-right, tea party candidates for the moderate CD in '06 and '10.
-- '10 nominee Jesse Kelly came within 2% of beating Giffords in 2010, but the nasty campaign (and Kelly's fundraiser where guests shot with an M-16) reflected more badly on him than her after Giffords's tragic shooting months later. Yet he remains the favorite by dint of name ID and experience working the CD's electorate.
-- The GOP establishment has two candidates to choose from: Univ. of AZ basketball announcer Dave Sitton and ex-combat pilot Martha McSally. Kelly has a fellow tea partier to contend with, firebreathing conservative state Sen. Frank Antenori, but Antenori's campaign is such a shambles he couldn't file his FEC reports on time. His threat to Kelly is minimal, while Sitton and McSally have had little time to introduce themselves and could split the establishment. McSally in particular has a biography the GOP would love to flaunt in a general, but she simply hasn't caught fire.
Ron Barber isn't Giffords, but her story (and money) has rubbed off on him, and even AZ GOPers think Kelly would fare poorly against him. It appears a likely, and ironic, finale for a seat that has haunted the nat'l GOP for several cycles.
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