Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Last Year's Model


AZ GOP won't coalesce around '10 nominee Kelly just yet.

Monday, April 9, 2012 | 12:53 p.m.
'10 nominee Jesse Kelly (R) "is viewed as having the best organization, the highest name identification in the district and the inside track to the GOP nomination." National GOP strategist: “I don’t see how Jesse doesn’t win the primary after watching it unfold.”

Some "operatives believe Kelly would not be a viable nominee in the fall election if he loses the June 12 special. They are talking up" ret. Air Force pilot
 Martha McSally (R) or radio announcer Dave Sitton (R).  "Kelly has a strong fiscal conservative profile and the support of the base. The worry is that he is too conservative for the moderate district."  Kelly spokesperson John Ellenwood: “Jesse’s going to continue to talk to the voters about lowering taxes, a stronger economy, more jobs and using American energy to lower gas prices. And the response to that has been very positive, and so we’re going to continue to talk about those issues.”

Strategist
 Chris DeRose: “I think he’s the strongest. Look at how close he came to beating Gabby Giffords. Gabby Giffords is a lot more formidable than Ron Barber, even in light of everything.”  DeRose "did note that McSally is a rising star" in AZ politics.  Kelly "and his team are focused on discussing issues and tying Barber" to Pres. Obama. "Locally, though, it’s personal ... McSally and Sitton don’t carry any baggage from the 2010 race or ties to Giffords" (Livingston, Roll Call, 4/9).

About 160.6K "early ballots were mailed to a potential pool" of about 421.7K voters in AZ-08. Through April 6, "about 73,350 early ballots had been returned. Voters have until April 17 to get them back to their county elections office. In Pima County, which accounts for 80 percent of CD8 voters," 61.9K ballots "had been returned," and "nearly" 32.6K "voted in the Republican primary" (McCombs,
 Arizona Daily Star, 4/8).

The Three Amigos

Barber "will have at least two opponents in the upcoming primary" in the new AZ-02. Non-profit co-founder Nomiki Konst (D) "confirmed" April 6 "she’s staying in the race despite Barber’s presence. Konst joins" AZ Rep. Matt Heinz (D) "as the only two Democrats to stay in the race."

Konst "made her decision after traveling the district on what she called a 'listening tour,' in which she met with senior citizens, young professionals, veterans, latinos and business people."  Konst, in a release: “Ron Barber is a nice man. I respect and admire his dedication to the party and the district. But that does not mean he has the vision, the ideas and the energy to fight for this district, especially for years to come” (McCombs,
 Arizona Daily Star, 4/6).

Konst: "Political games are being played behind the scenes. We are all aware of it. That's why I chose to run, so I could defy the political games" (McCombs,
 Arizona Daily Star, 4/7).

Barber "has raised more than twice as much as any of his GOP challengers in the special election." He "brought in $549,132 through the end of March ... That's significantly more than the four Republicans vying for their party's nomination: [Sitton] - $260,550; [Kelly] - $210,348; [McSally] - $133,097;" AZ Sen.
 Frank Antenori (R) - "no report filed."  More than one-quarter of Barber's donations, $154.5K "came from political action committees," including $126K from Act Blue (McCombs, Arizona Daily Star, 4/6).

"Giffords, her family members and her campaign fund gave more than" $15K to Barber, including: Giffords -- $5K; husband/ex-astronaut
 Mark Kelly -- $5K; Giffords campaign -- $4K; motherGloria Giffords -- $1K; sister Melissa Giffords -- $250 (Sanders, Arizona Republic, 4/5).

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