Rick Santorum has suspended his underdog presidential bid, all but cementing GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney's claim to the Republican presidential nomination. But the former senator's decision is good news for a couple of Senate race underdogs. In two states with upcoming Republican primaries, the insurgent candidates are the victors this afternoon:
Indiana: Santorum's exit means conservatives have less incentive to flock to the ballot box on May 8, the same day as the state's presidential primary. Ostensibly, that's not good news for conservative Richard Mourdock, who enjoys support from the same pool of voters Santorum has been courting in his bid against Sen. Richard Lugar.
But that's only one part of the story. GOP pollster Christine Matthews -- who, along with Democratic firm Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, recently polled Indiana -- had a different take in a piece last week:
More interesting is how an active presidential contest would play in the U.S. Senate primary. Romney supporters line up with Lugar, while Santorum's are in sync with Mourdock. NBC's Chuck Todd said a competitive GOP presidential primary would be a nightmare for Senator Lugar, but I disagree. The Santorum/Mourdock voters are going to turn out anyway -- because they are the base and because the NRA, FreedomWorks, and Club for Growth will make sure of it. What benefits Lugar is for the Romney micro-targeting and turn-out machine to be in full force. If Romney is cruising, they may take a less active role in turning out their supporters and these people are more likely to stay home if they think Romney has the nomination wrapped up.
No comments:
Post a Comment