Okay Everyone, Please Your Bets

Delaney, Bartlett favored to win.

Tuesday, April 3, 2012 | 12:59 p.m.

Financier John Delaney's (D) strong campaign, bolstered by over $1.3M of his own money, appears to have put him in charge of his own destiny heading into the primary. State Senate Maj. Leader Rob Garagiola (D) could still win, but Delaney has given plenty of reasons to doubt the state legislator's chances.

Meanwhile, Garagiola and his outside allies have focused exclusively on selling his progressive legislative record [and calling out Delaney for a donation to Rep. Andy Harris (R-01) in 2010] via direct mail and contact with voters. It's an unusual, risky move, but it has the benefit of using Garagiola's dollars only to reach likely Dem primary voters, not the universe of area residents - some of whom live outside the district, many of whom aren't Dems - listening to radio and watching TV.

Garagiola has done this successfully before. He spent almost nothing on media advertising in his first state Senate challenge in 2002, and he eked out an 800-vote margin of victory, out of 40K votes cast, over an incumbent. Incidentally, 40K is about the same number of votes Garagiola expects to be cast in his the primary. Meanwhile, the GOP challenge to Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R) has fizzled. The anti-Bartlett vote is going to be divided in a large field (Hotline reporting, 4/2).

Politico's Catanese writes that unions "continue to hit the phones hard" for Garagiola. However, "Garagiola's been dark in mail for about 11 days now, with only a single union mailer hitting doors. He's had no other paid contact, and his campaign made the rather stunning acknowledgement of not being able to place a television flight. Delaney supplemented his mail and radio campaign with a broadcast ad late last week that tarred Garagiola as a lobbyist who tried to stymie health care reform" ("Campaigns", 4/3).

Leave It All On The Road

Delaney "added another" $359K of his own money "to his campaign" last week. With one $284K check on March 28, Delaney "gave himself more money than Garagiola reported raising" in the 1stQ. Delaney's "total amount of self-funding" now tops $1.7M and he has "also raised significantly more from outside donors than Garagiola has."

Both candidates "are now deploying their best-known surrogates to aid their efforts." Bill Clinton"has recorded automated phone calls" for Delaney while Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) "has done the same for Garagiola" (Pershing, "Maryland Politics", Washington Post, 4/2).

Delaney "raised" more than $2M for his campaign as of March 14. His mgr Justin Schall "said" on April 2 that, since then, "Delaney raised an additional" $432K, which includes the $359K loan. Garagiola "raised" $74K in last-minute fundraising, including $5K each from the American Medical Assn and Internat'l Brotherhood of Teamsters PACs. Before March 14, his camp "had raised" nearly $578L. and about $401K of that "came from a loan from Garagiola." As of March 14, Garagiola "had about" $168K CoH.

For the GOPers, Bartlett "remained far ahead," having raised more than $33K since March 14. Before than, he had raised more than $412K and had $17K CoH (Mabeus, Frederick News-Post, 4/3).

Put On Your Happy Face

In Frederick on April 2, area residents "got a dose of Delaney" at a local Safeway. Frederick Co. Dems chair Myrna Whitworth also "caught up with Delaney at the MARC train station in Frederick, where commuters were greeted by Delaney and his campaign aides." Delaney supporter/state Comp.Peter Franchot (D) "also made the last-minute rounds alongside Delaney" (Anthony, FrederickNews-Post, 4/3).

Got To Get The Ex Involved, Of Course

Bartlett's camp "is denying involvement in a last-minute negative hit" on state Sen. David Brinkley(R). On March 31, "the blog Maryland Juice posted audio clips of two different calls to 911," one made by Brinkley and one by his ex-wife, "made following a domestic dispute in 2008." The audio clips "were attributed by Maryland Juice to 'Bartlett supporters.'"

Bartlett's camp, after some other candidates in the race weighed in: "The Bartlett campaign has not criticized David Brinkley's personal life and has no role whatsoever in the release of the 911 tapes. If our campaign learns of any outside party responsible for the release of the tapes, we'll be sure to provide that information."

Brinkley spokesperson Don Murphy: "The congressman's denial might be believed if [Bartlett mgrTed] Dacey hadn't requested copies of the tapes last fall, just prior to Senator Brinkley entering this race" (Pershing, "Maryland Politics", Washington Post, 4/2).

While the "audio surfaced online last week, it caught little notice until over the weekend, when a Twitter account that includes Bartlett's publicity photo and a link to the campaign website tweeted links to the 911 calls. The account has no followers and had no tweets" before March 31. "It is not the official Bartlett campaign Twitter handle. A similar YouTube account has also emerged with the 911 call audio, with a slightly different handle than the campaign's official channel. If the two forms of social media are not related to the campaign, as his team plainly states, they were created to appear so."

Murphy: "One way or another, Bartlett's days are numbered. Should he manage to survive the primary with a majority of Republican voters dissatisfied with his performance in office, and his scorched-earth campaign, he will surely lose this seat to the Democratic nominee in November." Dacey: "You can look at the public record, I did not request any tapes." Also, as Maryland Juice first noted, "Brinkley's ex-wife, Sallie Brinkley, endorsed Bartlett on Facebook."

Sallie: "If Republican values like family and integrity matter to you as they do to me, you will cast a vote for Roscoe this [T]uesday" (Livington, "At the Races", Roll Call, 4/2).